Prediction markets are platforms where people buy and sell contracts on whether future events will happen: if more people buy "yes," the price rises, so a contract sitting at $0.62 means the crowd collectively thinks there's a 62% chance. These odds update in real time as new information comes in, functioning like a live poll that people back with money.
Prediction markets have surged in prominence since 2024. For example, Polymarket's U.S. presidential election markets attracted over $3.5 billion in trading volume and were cited by major news outlets as real-time alternatives to polling, while markets on whether China would launch a military operation against Taiwan were widely tracked by foreign policy analysts and journalists as barometers of geopolitical risk.